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To the surprise of most, equity markets ignored the many geopolitical concerns and headed full steam toward new all-time highs to close 2023. On the back of seemingly unrestrained U.S. Government spending that approached the peak of the Covid pandemic, the U.S. bucked all recession fears and posted solid quarterly and annual gains. In addition, inflation has continued to cool, although still considerably higher than a few years ago. Markets are telling us that the Fed is done raising rates and are beginning to pivot toward rate cuts in the not too distant future. We will be looking for Fed guidance in January as to the timing and magnitude of the cuts, as they evolve throughout the year. Odds are, if rate cuts begin and additional market accommodations are put back in place, a resurgence of inflation could occur. Unfortunately, we feel that we will be living in an inflationary environment until the U.S. debt issues are resolved. One key questions that we will be addressing this year is whether we have reached the point to extend duration and begin to buy longer maturity bonds before money market rates fall. As of the start of 2024, the lure of over 5% yield on money market is still an issue for stocks continuing to grow, all while the yield curve remains inverted, causing many to believe that recession is still a strong likelihood. While that possibility looms, we look to curtail any risky asset purchases, instead focusing on quality equities with strong balance sheets, established businesses and good growth trajectories. Furthermore, we look to put new investment assets to work in areas that have remained out of favor in 2023 with the hopes that they may have a sort of reversion to the mean and provide opportunity: value relative to growth, small caps relative to large caps, to mention a few.

Major stock indices posted gains of 11.7% and 13.7% for the S&P 500 and the DJ Industrial Average, while the NASDAQ Composite Index advanced 14.6% in Q4. Annually, they gained 26.3%, 16.2% and 55.1% respectively. Internationally, the EAFE rose 10.4% for the quarter and 18.2% for the year. Fixed Income also rallied, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index rising 6.8% for the quarter and 5.5% for 2024. Gold ended the quarter up 11.8% and 13.3% for the year. Crude oil pulled back substantially, dropping -21.4% in the fourth quarter and -11.4% for the year. The average stock in Morningstar’s coverage universe is now priced to perfection, trading exactly at fair market value. Sector specific valuations showed Communication Services again as the largest undervalued sector, trading 13% below fair value, and Energy and Real Estate both 8% undervalued. Both Technology and Industrials traded to end the quarter at 5% overvalued. All remaining sectors trading slightly above or below fair market value1. The current P/E ratio of 25.55 for the S&P 500 continues to give us pause, now 59.3% over the historic average of 16.0. We continue to remain cautious as the market is slightly ahead of the economy and factoring in a very rosy outlook, while discounting any possible negative scenarios that may come to fruition in 2024.
Please stay tuned to our continued adjustment on market outlook or reach out for a discussion on where we stand at any given time. We continually modify our position based upon new info and market risk and would be honored to speak with you. Your investment success is our ultimate goal.
Jack A. Kennedy
Chief Investment Officer